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Janne Kirjasniemi on Erecting the Gnomon
at 20:15 on 16-04-2014 - link
It should be pointed out that the european "empires" weren't all that established in 1637
Well that's certainly true, although Spanish trade from the New World and to China, where the main Spanish trade item was silver from the Americas, did go through Philippines. Interestingly, they had a series of naval battles against stronger Dutch forces and managed to win, but certainly if the Japanese would have access to better technology, it would have been very different and definitely nothing clear cut.
On the pistols and cavalry, the variations in cavalry were quite significant in this time period in Europe, certainly the swedes deployed cavalry units with pistols and others as well, but in many cases lances and swords were still widely in use. By this time the classic steppe horse archers had also lost their edge against the Russians in any serious warfare, but the Crimeans did raid extensively in the south, helped by the Ottomans. The disadvantages of Japanese cavalry sprang from lack of horses, but perhaps also from the fact that infantry armed with muskets was in ascendance everywhere and was becoming more important all over. -
http://arilou-skiff.livejournal.com/ on Erecting the Gnomon
at 02:30 on 15-04-2014 - link
Also, IIRC for some unknown reason the japanese never really adopted pistols on a larger scale. They produced a ton of muskets (even some rifled models, IIRC) but they used them even for cavalry (where europeans preferred pistols) unclear why.
Though partially it was probably because japanese cavalry was pretty unimpressive by european or central-asian standards (horses were small and relatively rare) and was mainly used as archery platforms (where I guess a musket would be easier to adapt than the relatively different tactics used by pistol-armed cavalry) - http://arilou-skiff.livejournal.com/ on Erecting the Gnomon at 02:26 on 15-04-2014 - link It should be pointed out that the european "empires" weren't all that established in 1637: It's not as if the spanish could sail the Armada (even before it was sunk) to the Philippines easily. (the original invasion plans also involved using dutch ships, which, considering this is in the middle of the 30-years war, could possibly be provided)
- Arthur B on Erecting the Gnomon at 18:14 on 14-04-2014 - link A point which Gentle actually neatly touches on when, during their first encounter with him, Saburo turns out to be an expert hand at filling and reloading Rochefort's pistols (which is crucial in helping them get the upper hand on a Medici ambush team).
- Janne Kirjasniemi on Erecting the Gnomon at 18:03 on 14-04-2014 - link That's actually somewhat credible, as there had been Portuguese and Spanish ships trading there for near 100 years at this point and Hidayoshi's armies certainly perfected the use of gunpowder weapons effectively enough.
- Arthur B on Erecting the Gnomon at 15:24 on 14-04-2014 - link I believe part of the departure point was going all-in on improving Japanese ship design and manufacture so they could produce a fleet that could effectively tackle the Spanish.
- Janne Kirjasniemi on Erecting the Gnomon at 15:17 on 14-04-2014 - link That would be an interesting scenario, given that the Spanish were already established there. I remember having read a letter from Hideyoshi to the Viceroy there and that letter seemed pretty aggressive, so it could have happened. Getting past those Spanish ships might have presented a problem though.
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http://arilou-skiff.livejournal.com/ on Erecting the Gnomon
at 14:51 on 14-04-2014 - link
@Janne: Another possible POD would be the planned invasion of the Philipines in the early 1600's that was derailed by the Shimabara rebellion in 1637.